The election result does not automatically change US tariffs. Democrats won both the House and the Senate on Tuesday, and for any European exporter the immediate question is whether the duties go away now. Short answer: no. If you are planning your 2027 pricing, the tariff regime stays. What changes is the politics around it.
What actually changed on Tuesday?
Democrats took the Senate, flipping at least seven seats: Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Kansas, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled at the time of writing. In the House, they gained at least 28 seats, with counting still under way. [1]
That is a working majority, not a veto-proof one. Overriding a presidential veto takes two-thirds of both chambers, and on current results neither party is near that bar. [2] The new Congress is only seated in January 2027, but the election result itself changes no duty rate. Until a law passes, the existing authorities can still move tariffs.
Why do the US tariffs stay?
Two reasons.
First, the duties in force today are not the ones the Supreme Court struck down. In February, the Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the president to impose tariffs. [3] The duties imposed since rest on other statutes, chiefly Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, both of which require a completed investigation before new duties are imposed. Steel, aluminium, cars, copper and trucks are covered, and a Section 301 determination in July put duties of 10 to 12.5 per cent on 60 economies over forced-labour enforcement. [4]
Second, repeal is a law, and a law needs a signature. A Democratic Congress can pass a rollback bill; the president can veto it; and on current results an override is out of reach. So expect oversight hearings and rollback votes that send a message rather than change a rate.
What gets more scrutiny, and what gets more valuable?
With both chambers in opposition hands, exemption and exclusion decisions move into the light. Expect committee hearings on who pays the duties and who gets out of them. A weak exemption case gets harder to defend in public, not easier.
Refunds are the other side of the ledger. Duties collected under IEEPA on eligible entries are being returned: the importer of record, or their customs broker, files a CAPE Declaration through CBP's ACE portal, and once a declaration is accepted, valid refunds are generally issued within 60 to 90 days, unless CBP flags a compliance concern. [5] That process rewards clean paperwork: accurate entry records, correct tariff codes, bank details on file.
Does the risk of escalation fall?
It is uncertain, and the election alone does not lower it. No duty changes because of the result, and investigations already running under Section 232 and Section 301 can still bring increases. [4] What those statutes do require is a completed investigation before new duties, a slower and more predictable machine than an executive order signed overnight. Treat de-escalation as a possibility to welcome, not a scenario to price in.
What this means for European exporters
The practical move for 2027 is not to wait for repeal. It is to be ready for the regime as it stands:
- Know your exposure. The tariff classification behind each product decides the duty, and errors are expensive. We covered the mechanics in The code behind the collection.
- Check refund eligibility. If you paid IEEPA duties as the importer of record, look at the CAPE process now. If your US customer was the importer of record, their side or their broker files the claim, and who ultimately keeps the money can depend on the contract. That is a commercial conversation worth having.
- Tighten exemption arguments. With oversight expected, evidence matters more than access.
- Price to survive the duties as they stand, and weigh the tariff hedge options, including US production, with clear eyes. See When Made in USA is the tariff hedge.
If relief comes later, it comes as a bonus, not as the plan.
Tracking these rulings, rates and exemption windows is part of what the desk does. If you want your 2027 US pricing checked against the current tariff schedule, request access.
Sources
- 1. Associated Press: Democrats win the US House and Senate, updated 4 November 2026
- 2. US Senate: the Constitution on overriding a presidential veto (two-thirds of both houses)
- 3. Supreme Court of the United States: Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287, decided 20 February 2026
- 4. Congressional Research Service: Active Presidential Tariff Actions in 2026 (updated 8 October 2026)
- 5. US Customs and Border Protection: IEEPA duty refunds via CAPE (page updated 2 September 2026)
Container ship and loading cranes at the port of Hamburg. Photo: Pexels.